Avaliação dos programas de incentivos fiscais no estado do Tocantins: o Programa Prosperar como marco histórico da política estadual

Abstract

This dissertation analyzes tax incentive programs, with an emphasis on PROSPERAR, established in the State of Tocantins, aiming to understand their normative structure, operationalization, and effects on the context of state economic development. The investigation adopts a qualitative approach with quantitative support, centered on document analysis, complemented by interviews with institutional actors involved in the public policy. The research is based on the Content Analysis technique, as proposed by Bardin, using a mixed methods grid approach. Initially, analytical categories were defined a priori, aligned with the research problem and the study's objectives, encompassing normative aspects, revenue collection, tax waivers, employment, and institutional perception. Throughout the exploration of the material, emerging subcategories were incorporated, allowing for greater interpretative depth and adaptation to the specificities of the phenomenon analyzed. The documentary corpus consisted of state legislation related to tax incentive programs, especially Law No. 1,355, as well as institutional reports, tax collection and waiver data, municipal socioeconomic information such as population, employment, remuneration, and Gross Domestic Product, in addition to other public documents relevant to the program. The analysis focused on identifying the number of beneficiary companies, the participation of PROSPERAR, the set of state tax waivers, revenue, especially ICMS (Tax on Circulation of Goods and Services), and the evolution of indicators such as population and formal employment. Additionally, these same categories were examined comparatively in municipalities with beneficiary companies, seeking to identify possible associations between the incentive policy and local economic dynamics. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with council members and public agents linked to the process of granting and monitoring incentives, with the purpose of complementing the documentary analysis and deepening the institutional understanding of the program. The statements were transcribed and incorporated into the analytical categories, making it possible to articulate normative and statistical evidence with the perceptions of the actors involved. The period analyzed covers the years 2021 to 2025, seeking to identify recent trends and potential institutional, fiscal, and economic impacts resulting from the incentive policy. The integration of qualitative and quantitative data allowed for an interpretation articulated with the adopted theoretical framework, ensuring coherence between the proposed objectives and the results achieved. It is expected that this research will contribute to the debate on the effectiveness of tax incentives as an instrument for regional development, highlighting the potential, limitations, and challenges of PROSPERAR in the context of the Tocantins economy.