Análise dos impactos cumulativos em regiões de confluência socioambiental

Abstract

The limitations observed in Environmental Impact Study (EIS), such as the superficial analysis of technological and siting alternatives, as well as the insufficient consideration of uncertainties and cumulative impacts, are inherent to the current assessment model. In this context, Cumulative Impact Assessment (CIA) emerges as an essential tool for informing decisions that go beyond the scope of individual projects. The objective of this study is to analyze the gaps in Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) resulting from the fragmentation of studies and licensing processes, examining their effects on the invisibility of cumulative impacts (CI) in regions of socio-environmental convergence. The research, exploratory and descriptive in nature with a qualitative approach, employed case studies, document analysis, and semi structured interviews with key licensing stakeholders. The spatial focus encompassed the municipalities of Imperatriz and Açailândia (MA), a territory marked by intense productive pressures in the Eastern Amazon. The methodology broke new ground by integrating multi criteria analysis for component selection (VECs) with causal modeling using Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) to define cumulative impacts. The results revealed procedural fragmentation that obscures these impacts, as well as a lack of procedural transparency and information that hinders access to data. The interviews reveal the centrality of legal-procedural discourse among stakeholders and the low level of integration between strategic planning and permitting, which limits the application of the AIC. It is concluded that the integration between AIC and EIA requires normative and institutional changes, moving beyond the project-by-project paradigm toward a territorial and systemic perspective. The study proposes methodological guidelines structured across four dimensions. These proposals aim to improve the analysis of cumulative impacts and inform public policies for regional mitigation.